EMERGENCY ARTICLE:
Previewing Champions Shanghai Grand Finals!

12 hours ago, Vitality upset 100 Thieves in a 3-1 lower finals match, earning their spot in the Champions Shanghai grand finals - the first grand final in Vitality’s VCT history. 8 hours from now, they will face LOUD in the grand final, which will also be their 3rd matchup within this event alone. The stage is set for the final match of Champions Shanghai, the final match of VCT 2026, and the final match of VCT Franchising as we know it. Fortunately, this matchup is postured to be an electric and titanic clash, a deserving finish.

With the aforementioned 8 hours until this event (aka I’m writing with a deadline), I have little time to spare, so let’s dive into the match and finalize predictions!

The Numbers

For those who aren’t familiar, this website has a rating algorithm called BenPom, which automatically calculates power rankings as well as previews matches. You can explore it more in the BenPom tab, but for now let’s look at what it says for the grand final match.

LOUD and Vitality are neck and neck. LOUD have a 7.72 rating, 2nd in the world, while Vitality have a 7.03 rating, 3rd in the world. Exciting!

Now, using BenPom’s algorithm to predict the map pick/ban given LOUD’s advantage coming from the uppers, what’s the estimated win probability for the match?

However, the map pick/ban is anything but a foregone conclusion. In their first two matchups, the map pick/ban was different:

Two things to consider:

1. What will LOUD ban? As you can see above, they switched from banning Split to banning Ascent against Vitality. Even against other teams recently, they’ve been jumping around. Before using their first ban on Ascent against Vitality in playoffs, they used their first ban on Lotus against NRG, Ascent against PRX, and then Split (as mentioned previously) against VIT in Groups.
2. What to do about Lotus? LOUD have floated Lotus against Vitality in their two Bo3s at Champs, playing it once (and losing). Having this float allowed them to keep their better maps available (Summit, Sunset, Abyss) and ban one of Vitality’s better maps. As the tournament has gone on, though, this strategy has looked more dubious. Vitality won Lotus both times they’ve played it at Champs: against LOUD themselves, and against 100T, who were considered favorites coming into the tournament. Will they continue to float Lotus? I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re scared enough to ban it, and I probably would as well if I were in LOUD’s shoes.

According to BenPom the optimal pick/ban from LOUD is:

Interestingly, the algorithm predicts that LOUD will open by banning Ascent/Split based on their recent matches, while the algorithm thinks the optimal opening ban from LOUD is Ascent/Lotus. These types of discrepancies are extremely interesting, and something that could make or break the grand final.

My opinion is that, the more maps you can play where Chronicle is on Neon, the better. For instance:

It’s not the craziest difference in the world, but it’s there. His neon has looked easy to punish throughout the matches he’s played it. LOUD have had a day off to watch and counterstrat, so I hope they will take advantage of that fact (and Chronicle’s Neon).

The Narratives

Irrespective of the map pick/ban, this match has a lot of pull and drama going into it. In many ways, these teams couldn’t be more dissimilar.

VITALITY:

Vitality are a historic organization in the whole of Esports, especially CS and Rocket League. On their roster, they have titans of VCT in Chronicle and Derke, two consensus top-10 players of all time. This organization has continually funneled money into picking up top talent, both old (Derke, Chronicle, Sayf, Less) and new (CyvOph and Sayonara). After two super teams and multiple roster shuffles, the organization has finally reached the apex of VCT at Champions Shanghai. Even Jamppi has been a face of the sport since 2021, reaching an international grand final after 5 years.

Sayonara and Profek are two outliers on the roster; they are younger, support players who have risen to the moment on this historic, decorated roster - especially Sayonara. Both of them are at their second international VCT event ever (both from Vitality, this year). Meanwhile:

LOUD:

The LOUD roster, however, is an opposite story. This is the first international VCT event for every single one of the players on Loud’s roster. Any of the players in the above Vitality graphic (Jamppi, Derke, and Chronicle) ALONE have more internationals attended than the ENTIRE LOUD roster.

Since Aspas left LOUD in 2024, the historically dominant Valorant organization has accomplished little to nothing, only reaching Masters Madrid in 2024. Not only are the LOUD players young and hungry, but so are the fans. The Brazilian fanbase is massive and have been starved of any competitive rosters, so they’ve rallied around this LOUD team with fervor. While Vitality have had superteam after superteam, shuffling in high level talent from around the world, LOUD have had 0 expectations to succeed over the previous years, with this young South American squad shattering expectations.

My Prediction:

I have to stick with LOUD here. Every angle I look at, it’s hard not to favor them. In my historical trends article I highlighted them as one of the three teams that history favors. By the numbers (BenPom) they’re favored, both in rating and in the projected probability. LOUD also have map pick/ban advantage, coming from uppers. EG remains the only team to win Champions coming from the lower bracket, back in 2023.

The biggest caveat to LOUD is how heavily they rely on two players: Erde and Lukxo. In Champions Shanghai playoffs, Erde and Lukxo were the two highest rated players on their team every time, and both have had above a 1.25 rating every time.

That is insane, but they’re also two rookies, in the biggest match of their lives, at their first international event ever. If one of the two falter, I can’t imagine the other LOUD players being able to replace that level of impact.

My final prediction is LOUD 3-1 VIT.